Observable characteristics
The research examines which characteristics can be observed repeatedly before unusual price moves and which observations are not confirmed by later developments.
PUBLIC RESEARCH INFORMATION
Which characteristics appear before
unusual price moves in U.S. penny stocks?
Merdivan uses data to study which observable characteristics appear before, during and after unusual price moves in low-priced U.S. equities. Market observations are recorded in a structured way and later compared with the price development that actually occurred.
Public project information · no individual buy, sell or hold recommendations
Timing and development
The research looks not only at later price changes, but also at their timing and at how prices develop before and after an unusual move.
Separated evaluation
Earlier observations and later outcomes are documented and evaluated separately in time. This is intended to prevent information learned later from changing earlier observations.
FROM THE MOMENT OF OBSERVATION TO THE LATER OUTCOME
How a research question is tested
The key principle is separation in time: what was known at the moment of observation is recorded before the later price development is known.
Observation
An unusual configuration is recorded using defined observable characteristics.
Record the candidate
The symbol, time and observed characteristics are documented before the later outcome is known.
Observe the path
The subsequent price development is followed over a defined period.
Ground truth
The market path that actually occurred is established independently at a later point.
Compare
The earlier observation is compared with the later outcome.
Learn
Only recurring, sufficiently robust relationships are carried forward as research evidence.
RESEARCH FOCUS
What Merdivan studies
Merdivan focuses on general research questions around low-priced U.S. equities. Internal models, rules and technical implementations are not public.
Recurring characteristics
Which observable characteristics appear more often before strong moves — and which do not?
Timing
How much time passes between the first observation, possible acceleration and a later high or decline?
Combinations
Whether several independent observations together are more informative than a single characteristic.
False positives
Which configurations initially look unusual but are not confirmed by the later market path.
Research and simulation remain separate
Hypotheses are first tested using recorded observations, later outcomes and controlled simulations. Simulated trades are research instruments and are not real trade executions.
A single case is not evidence by itself
One strong price move can be random. Results become more informative only across repeated cases, sufficient data and tests on later observations that were not known in advance.
Later successful cases must not be turned retroactively into selection criteria for earlier observations.
PUBLIC INFORMATION AND PROTECTION
What is public — and what remains protected
Public
The research question, general methodology, terminology and understandable interpretation of results.
Protected
Internal models, technical infrastructure, access credentials, individual accounts, system configurations and non-public research details.
What Merdivan Research studies
The project studies U.S. penny stocks and unusual price movements using systematic, data-based methods. The aim is to distinguish recurring statistical relationships from isolated coincidences.
The public content is provided solely as general information about the research project. It is neither investment advice nor a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security.